My research explores the micro-level dynamics of mass participation in intra-state violence.  A large portion of this work uses agent-based computational modeling, in conjunction with empirical data, and falls into three interrelated categories of research on ethnic violence, civil war, political regimes and mass behavior.  My research on ethnic violence seeks to explain variation in both scale and duration: namely, why some episodes of violence remain localized and contained, while others spread and endure?  Explanations examine the role of ethnic entrepreneurs in compelling reluctant or moderate group members to participate in violence against nominal rivals; the role of information--how individuals learn from threats facing trans-border ethnic kin or how sensationalism, in the form of violence-promoting rumors, emerges and survives over time; patterns of ethnic domination and their implications for the conditions that give rise to and later characterize violence between rival groups; and the role of associational membership.  In the area of civil war, my research examines how ethnicity interacts with resource scarcity and resource abundance to structure incentives and shape mass participation in violence.  Other research in this vein examines whether the distribution of control and incentives for defection or denunciation determine the nature of violence in civil wars, be it selective or indiscriminate, and how the relationship between these factors changes with the number and power asymmetry of rival political actors. In the area of political regimes, my research examines  decision-making dynamics in closed regimes, the dynamics of turnout in popular rebellions, and for multi-ethnic democracies in sub-Saharan Africa, whether citizens vote on ethnic, economic, or strategic grounds.


 Research                                                                         CV [pdf]

Articles
[01]   “Localized Ethnic Conflict and Genocide: Accounting for Differences in Rwanda and Burundi” with D. Backer, Journal of Conflict Resolution 44:3 (June 2000):283-307. [pdf]
[02]   “Announcement, Credibility, and Turnout in Popular Rebellions.” with M. Ross, Journal of Conflict Resolution 47:3 (June 2003):340-366.  [pdf]
[03]   “Adaptive Agents, Political Institutions, and Civic Traditions in Modern Italy” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 6:4 (October 2003) [html] 
[04]   “Blood, Diamonds, and Taxes: Lootable Wealth and Political Order in Sub-Saharan Africa.” with R. Snyder, Journal of Conflict Resolution 49:4 (August 2005):563-597. [pdf]  
[05]   “Ethnic Norms and Interethnic Violence: Accounting for Mass Participation in the Rwandan Genocide.” Journal of Peace Research 43:6 (November 2006):651-669. [pdf] 
[06]   "REsCape: An Agent-Based Framework for Modeling Resources, Ethnicity, and Conflict.” with D. Miodownik and J. Nart, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11:2 (March 2008). [html] 
[07]   "Simulating Closed Regimes Using Agent-Based Models." with R. Riolo and D. Backer. Complexity  (September/October 2008):33-46. [pdf] 
[08]   "Ethnic Polarization, Ethnic Salience, and Civil War." with D. Miodownik.  Journal of Conflict Resolution 53:1 (February 2009):30-49. [pdf] 
[09]   “Rumor Dynamics in Ethnic Violence.” with J. Kuklinski and M. Findley. Forthcoming. Journal of Politics 71:3 (July 2009). [pdf] 
[10]   "Scarcity, Abundance, and Conflict: A Complex New World?" Forthcoming. Whitehead Journal of International Diplomacy (July 2009). [pdf]
 [11]   "Replication and Beyond: Revisitng the Link between Adaptive Agents, Political Institutions, and Civic Traditions." with D. Miodownik  and B. Cartrite. Revise and Resubmit. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (2009).[html] 
[12]   “Voting in Africa: Ethnic, Economic, or Strategic."  with M. Bratton. Revise and Resubmit. British Journal of Political Science (2009). [pdf] 

Working Papers
[01]   “Localized Ethnic Conflict and Genocide: Accounting for Differences in Rwanda and Burundi”with D. Backer,  Santa Fe Institute Working Paper  99-07-053 (1999). [pdf]
[02]   “A Hybrid Model of Decision-Making in Closed Political Regimes” with R. Riolo and D. Backer, Proceedings of Workshop on Social Agents: Ecology, Exchange, and Evolution,  Gleacher Center, University of Chicago (October 2002). [pdf]
[03]   “Agent Based Models in the Study of Intra-State Violence” with R. Riolo, Paper prepared for the Virginia Modeling, Analysis, and Simulation Center Workshop on Human Behavioral Modeling (January 2005). [pdf]
[04]   “Social Capital and Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa.” with D. Backer, Afrobarometer Working Paper No. 90 (2007). [pdf]

Book Chapters
[01]   “Agent Based Models in the Study of Ethnic Norms and Interethnic Violence” in Neil Harrison (ed.) Complexity in World Politics: Concepts and Methods of a NewParadigm. SUNY Press (2006). 
[02]     “Agent-Based Models in the Study of Ethnic Violence” with R. Riolo and D. Miodownik, Forthcoming in Alexander Kott and Gary Citrenbaum (eds.)  Estimating Impact: A  Handbook of Computational Methods and Models for Anticipating Economic, Social, Political  and Security Effects in International Interventions (2009).

Projects

scram: Simulating Closed Regimes with Agent-Based Models
Closed political regimes such as North Korea, Iran, and Syria exhibit one of the hallmarks of a complex system: outcomes that are difficult to explain or trace back to their causes.  In particular, the actions of their leaders often appear to be conditional on subtle variations in circumstances, obscure, unpredictable or even illogical.  Understanding the dynamic properties of such a system inevitably presents a challenge for conventional analytical techniques. When one factors in the secretive, insular nature of these regimes and the heterogeneity of the constituent actors and the settings in which they operate, utilizing statistical, mathematical or game-theoretical approaches to gain explanatory leverage is generally impractical. 

REsCape: Resources, Ethnicity, and Civil War
 REsCape is an agent-based computational framework for studying the relationship between natural resources, ethnicity, and civil war. By permitting the user to specify: (i) different resource profiles ranging from a purely agrarian economy to one based on the artisanal or industrial extraction of alluvial or kimberlite diamonds; (ii) different patterns of ethnic domination, ethnic polarization, and varying degrees of ethnic salience; as well as (iii) specific modes of play for key agents, the framework can be used to assess the effects of key variables — whether taken in isolation or in various combinations — on the onset and duration of civil war.

RSAND: Resource Scarcity and Abundance in the Niger Delta
Research on the micro-foundations of rebellion has been singularly focused on resource abundance as a causal factor, nigeriaexploring the conditions under which natural resources and their spatial distribution influence the dynamics of conflict and violence. The RSAND project extends research on the resource-conflict link by explicitly incorporating the scarcity dimension. The project focuses on the Niger Delta, a case which embodies:
        -Resource Abundance: the large oil wealth of the region which generates over $10 billion in yearly revenue for the country
        -Resource Scarcity: environmental devastation in the form of oil spills and gas fires, global warming, soil and water pollution
        -Conflict: within and between local communities, ethnic groups, insurgents, and the government
About the Project Team: The RSAND project is directed by a multi-disciplinary team from the departments of Political Science (Bhavnani), Geography and Global Change (Qi and Olson), and the James Madison College (Edozie), together with a team of Nigerian scholars from institutions located in the Region.  Our approach to studying the Niger Delta case is decidely eclectic, combining GIS and remote sensing data, agent-based computational modeling, field and archival research.

Upcoming Conferences

ETH, Zurich, CH September 2008
HUJI-MSU, Jerusalem, IL May 2009
ABRI/ISA, Rio, BR July 2009
APSA, Toronto, CA September 2009

Contact

bhavnani@msu.edu
tel:  517 353 7859
fax: 517 432 1091
SKYPE: rvibhav