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January 22, Jack Goldstone Professor of Public Policy George Mason University
January 22 @ 7:00 pm - 11:00 pm
The LeFrak Forum and Symposium on Science, Reason & Modern Democracy in association with the Reason Foundation present a lecture by Professor Jack Goldstone titled “Immigration: Keeping the Welfare State Solvent in the Face of Demographic Collapse.”
Abstract: Fertility rates are falling in America, including among previously fast-growing groups such as Hispanics and immigrants. The US Census has revised its 2050 population estimate downward from 439 million to under 400 million. That means 40 million fewer workers, consumers and taxpayers will be around than expected just 10 years ago. At the same time, rising longevity means that 65-plus-seniors will be a bigger portion of the population. The same population dynamic is unfolding in the rest of the West. If America wants to meet its promised benefits to seniors, it’ll need to spur population growth either through more child birth or encouraging immigration or both. For the latter, it’ll mean competition over non-Western immigrants. This will require a paradigm shift so that instead of erecting barriers to discourage immigration, America and the West will need to create conduits to facilitate it.
Jack Goldstone is the Virginia E. and John T. Hazel Professor of Public Policy. Dr. Goldstone has worked extensively on forecasting global conflict and terrorism, and with the US Agency for International Development and the World Bank on providing democracy assistance to fragile states. His recent essay in Foreign Affairs, “The New Population Bomb” has received world-wide attention.